Global warming is a dangerous factor to the world, presently. Now, Arctic warming has become so dramatic that the North Pole may melt this summer, report scientists studying the effects of climate change in the field. They are projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time in history.


Firsthand observations and satellite images show that the immediate area around the geographic North Pole is now mostly annual, or first-year, ice-thin new ice that forms each year during the winter freeze. Such ice is much more prone to melting during the summer months than perennial, or multiyear, ice, which is thick and dense ice that has lasted through multiple cycles of thawing and refreezing.


Recent models suggest that the Arctic won’t see its first completely ice-free summer until somewhere between 2013 and 2030. But this summer’s forecast-and unusual early melting events all around the Arctic-serve as a dire warning of how quickly the polar regions are being affected by climate change.


Scientists are particularly interested in the North and South Poles because they are expected to show the most dramatic effects of global warming. The temperature increases roughly three times as quickly as the rest of the globe because of an effect known as ice albedo feedback, which occurs when highly reflective ice gives way to dark water. The water absorbs much more of the sun’s energy, increasing temperatures and causing further ice melting.


Forecasts for this summer’s ice suggest the damage has already been done. An unusually cold winter had raised hopes for a recovery, but much of the ice that formed froze later than usual, ending up so thin that it has already started to break up.


But given the rapid changes now evident in the Arctic, the ultimate fate of the North Pole-in fact, all permanent ice in the Arctic-may be all but assured. Almost all models have the Arctic completely ice free in the summer by 2100.